Brussels — The chill of the early morning wind pressed against the stone walls of NATO’s headquarters, echoing a growing tension that stretched far beyond Europe. As the world turns its eyes to Ukraine, another theater of war unfolds in the Middle East, a battleground where Israel’s recent strike against Hezbollah has triggered tremors felt as far as Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing.
The conflict here, often written off as localized, now sits at the heart of a much larger geopolitical shift. It’s not just about Israel versus Hezbollah or Hamas anymore. It’s about a world teetering between two futures: one led by a coalition pushing for inclusion and collaboration, and the other by forces resistant to change, clinging to control through fear and opposition. But what truly lies behind this intricate web of alliances and enmities? And why does every missile exchanged between Israel and Hezbollah matter to powers like Russia, Iran, and even China?
The Middle East: Proxy for Global Conflict
This is no longer just a regional conflict. Israel’s battles with Hezbollah and Hamas are playing out in a world where lines between local and global struggles blur. The axis of resistance — Iran, Russia, and North Korea — sees itself as the bulwark against Western influence. Every skirmish, every assassination (like that of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in September), sends ripples across a fragile geopolitical landscape. It’s a battlefield where ideologies clash as much as armies.
Think of it this way: when Hezbollah strikes Israel, it’s not just an act of aggression by a local militant group. It’s a move ordered from Tehran, reverberating through Moscow, shaking the hands of policymakers in Beijing. The battles fought in the skies above Gaza or the hills of southern Lebanon are part of a much larger chess game, one where global powers play for influence, resources, and control over the future.
Israel’s Strategic Blow to Hezbollah: What It Means for Iran
There’s something deeply personal in Israel’s latest offensive against Hezbollah. This wasn’t just a show of military might—it was a strategic move to isolate Iran in the region. By targeting Nasrallah, Israel sent a message to Tehran: We can reach your proxies anywhere, anytime. And Tehran, in its paranoia and ambition, knows this isn’t just about Lebanon. It’s about Iran’s grip over its regional proxies — Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shia militias across Iraq and Syria.
Imagine a spider’s web, Iran at the center, its influence stretching out through these groups. Nasrallah’s death cuts one of those strings, leaving the web weaker, more vulnerable. Iran, already cornered by sanctions and internal unrest, can’t afford these losses. And for Russia, North Korea, and even China, Tehran’s role in resisting Western influence is crucial.
But to grasp the full weight of this, we need to zoom out. This isn’t just about one man or one proxy. It’s about whether Iran can still claim its place as the leader of the so-called “resistance axis,” and what that means for the broader coalition of powers aligned against U.S. influence.
The Coalition of Inclusion: Why Israel-Saudi Normalization Matters
At the same time, Israel is courting a very different future—one where its alliances stretch across the Middle East, bypassing old enmities. The Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel’s relations with several Arab nations, were just the beginning. The proposed normalization with Saudi Arabia is a far more significant domino to fall. If successful, it would reshape the region’s political landscape entirely.
And here’s the kicker: Iran’s worst nightmare is an alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It’s not just the symbolism of two former enemies shaking hands—it’s the concrete reality of being further isolated in a region that’s turning toward economic cooperation, security alliances, and collective prosperity. For Iran, it’s a death knell to its ideological influence in the region.
When Netanyahu raised two maps during his speech at the United Nations in September, one marked “The Curse” and the other “The Blessing,” the message was clear. The “Curse” showed Iran, Syria, and Iraq locked in darkness, a black stain on the Middle East’s potential. But the “Blessing” offered a vision of a future where Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan were linked in green, a corridor of trade and prosperity bridging East and West. It’s a future where Iran and its allies are left out in the cold.
Hezbollah’s Decline: Turning Point for Lebanon?
What does all this mean for Lebanon, a country long held hostage by Hezbollah’s grip? For years, Hezbollah has been the muscle behind Iranian influence in the region, but internally, the group is losing favor. The Lebanese people—Christian, Sunni, and even some Shia—are tired. Tired of their country being used as a pawn in Iran’s war games, tired of the destruction that always seems to follow Hezbollah’s confrontations with Israel.
It’s a tragic irony that while Hezbollah claims to defend Lebanon from external enemies, its actions have brought more devastation to the country than peace. Every time a missile is launched from Lebanese soil, it’s the Lebanese people who pay the price. As Orit Perlov, an expert on Arab social media, noted, “The Lebanese don’t want another Gaza on their hands. They are done with wars that aren’t theirs to fight.”
Nasrallah’s death may just be the opportunity Lebanon needs to finally break free from this cycle of violence. But that future isn’t guaranteed. It will take a Herculean diplomatic effort—one that requires Israel, the U.S., and even moderate Arab nations to offer Lebanon a way out of Iran’s orbit.
Can Netanyahu Break Free of His Own “Party of God”?
Yet here’s the real question, one that has no easy answer: Can Netanyahu do the impossible? Can he, having struck a mortal blow to Hezbollah, now find the courage to strike a similar political blow at home?
For years, Netanyahu has relied on far-right factions in Israeli politics—groups that, much like Hezbollah in Lebanon, hold extremist views about the land and people they claim to protect. If Netanyahu is to truly pursue peace, if he’s to solidify Israel’s place in the coalition of inclusion and foster lasting alliances with the Arab world, he’ll have to make a drastic shift. He’ll need to break ties with his own “Party of God,” the religious right that seeks to annex the West Bank and control all the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean.
And that, perhaps, is the greatest challenge of all. Because while it’s one thing to take out an external enemy like Hezbollah, it’s an entirely different matter to confront the forces within that have kept Israel in a state of near-permanent conflict.
Conclusion: The Path Forward
Israel’s recent strike against Hezbollah is about much more than just military might. It’s part of a larger global struggle between forces of inclusion and resistance, with Iran, Russia, and North Korea on one side, and a fragile yet growing coalition of nations on the other. But the true test for Israel—and indeed, the world—lies not just in winning battles, but in forging a future of peace and inclusion, one where even the most entrenched conflicts can find resolution.
