Monday, May 29, 2023

United States: An Election Haunted by Donald Trump

The author is an associate researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, where her work focuses on the study and analysis of American politics.

On November 8, Americans will be called to vote in a midterm election that could give the Republican Party a majority in Congress — and, by extension, set up the pawns on which Donald Trump can return as the presidential candidate in 2024. trust for.

Democrats hold a small majority in the House of Representatives (the equivalent of the House of Commons in Canada), and are even slimmer in the Senate. In the House, where all 435 seats are at stake, Republicans would need five more elected officials to regain control. In the Senate, where 34 of 100 mandates would be renewed, a victory would guarantee him a majority. And they’re favorites, especially in the House.

Voting for Joe Biden’s Democrats promises to be tough. First for a reason rooted in history: the president’s party almost always loses in the midterm elections. Except for three times – in 1934, 1998 and 2002 – the ruling party in the Congress has always been in retreat. And 2022 isn’t shaping up to be the exception to the rule.

The second reason: the marked unpopularity of the Democratic president. That’s the majority of voters who say they disapprove of Joe Biden’s job, without interruption since his disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Over the course of months, the state of the economy, weighed down by a dynamic of stagnation – a combination of stagnation and inflation with GDP in contraction since the beginning of the year and a historically high inflation rate – appears to be on the rise. In polls, the president has the worst trust index in generations, both from consumers and businesses.

The loss of majority in both houses would have many consequences. It will be difficult for the Biden administration to advance its legislative proposals. If Republicans took control of the Senate, they would be able to block any major nominations, for example to the Supreme Court. Recall Barack Obama’s failed attempt to appoint a liberal judge in the middle of an election year in 2016, a decision blocked by the Republican majority in the Senate, followed by Donald Trump’s appointment of three conservative judges, also supported by a Senate majority. Republican. This new Supreme Court creation followed last June’s Roe v. Wade, who defended abortion rights nationwide.

Furthermore, a Republican Congress would almost certainly end the commission on January 6, 2021, launching investigations into the administration, even the Biden family, to determine the role Donald Trump played in the attack on Capitol Hill. examines.

The latter is trying to elect a skewer of Republican candidates in the primaries (with a success rate of just over 90% among Republican voters since the start of the 2022 election cycle). Elected members of Congress are ultimately called upon to certify, or not, the results of the next presidential election. It will be managed on a state-by-state basis by elected election officials after the November 2022 election.

In other words, the vote in November will have far-reaching consequences not only for the current and 46I president, but also for someone who was 45I… who else can be number 47I,

5 Barometer Races in the House of Representatives

representative chamber

It is the lower house, equivalent to the House of Commons. 435 seats are filled after one ballot in each state. The least populous state (Wyoming) has 1; The most populous (California) has 52. Each elected representative represents a constituency (district).

Representatives are elected for two years. All the seats are to be at stake in the presidential election and then in the mid-term elections.

current composition
  • 221 Democrat
  • 212 Republican
  • 2 vacant seats
core strengths

Legislation: Any federal bill must pass through the House. Only the House of Representatives can propose tax laws.

Investigation : The majority party may hold a public inquiry, for example on the January 6, 2021 insurrection on Capitol Hill.

Lack : The House, by majority vote, may impeach any member of the government, including the President of the United States; After that it is up to the Senate to impeach or acquit him.

Mayra Flores, 36, became the first Republican in history to win a majority-Hispanic constituency in a by-election held before 2022. Gaining a full mandate in this region bordering Mexico would consolidate notable gains made by the Republican Party in recent years among ethnic minorities, particularly Hispanics in southern Texas.

The constituency, redistricted in 2020, is the perfect example of wealthy and educated suburbs (more than 50% of the population have university degrees) that have switched to the Democratic camp with the arrival of Donald Trump as Republican leader . The result will reveal the extent to which the Republican Party’s populist turn continues to drive away voters in the suburbs — or not — as we look to the 2024 presidential election.

Iowa turned Republican after twice supporting Barack Obama. Only the third of its four constituencies in the House is held by a Democrat, Cindy Aksin. And she risks going there in November, which will confirm her party’s lineage.


2e Circulation (Bangor, Lewiston)

This vast riding in the eastern United States shares a long border with Quebec and New Brunswick. He twice endorsed Trump, while also electing Jared Golden, a Democrat, to the House of Representatives for two terms. If Republicans are able to make a breakthrough in New England in 2022, this will be one of the first districts to fall; And if Republicans manage to break through in New England, it is because a Republican wave will sweep through the country.

Nevada has three precincts covering metropolitan, Las Vegas and surrounding areas — all three held by Democrats who are at risk of losing their seats. Perhaps most unexpected is one that involves East Las Vegas and its largest suburban city, Henderson. The outgoing representative, Dina Titus, was swept away by the Republican tsunami of 2010, before returning to her position two years later. The result there will most likely be the scale of the Republican “wave” — and the struggle of Democrats — both in the state and nationwide.

5 Races That Will Decide the Color of the Senate


The Upper House is the equivalent of the Canadian Senate, but its members are elected. This ensures representation for the smallest states. There are two senators from each state, who are elected for six-year terms. One-third of the seats are held by rotation every two years.

current composition
  • 50 Democrats
  • 50 Republican
  • Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States, casts the vote in the event of a tie as President of the Senate.
core strengths

Legislation: All federal bills must be approved by the Senate.

Investigation : The majority party can initiate a public inquiry.

Lack : If the House of Representatives has already impeached a public servant, the Senate has the power to impeach him, with a two-thirds vote.

Ratification : Any international treaty signed by the President, such as the Free Trade Agreement with Canada, must be approved by the Senate.

Confirmation : The most important appointments of the President, including to the federal courts, must be approved by a majority vote of the Senate.

Astronaut Mark Kelly, husband of ex-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who was killed by a crazed gunman in the Tucson area in 2011, won the seat held by Republicans in 2020, including presidential candidates John McCain and Barry Goldwater. Their opponent’s weakness may help them survive in hostile territory.

As in Arizona, a Democrat managed to win an election two years ago in this state which is not very hospitable to the party. Incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock’s best hope lies in the controversial nature of his opponent, ex-football star Herschel Walker. The latter is clearly losing the polls after revelations concerning several illegitimate children. Note: This is the first senatorial race between two African-American candidates in the South.

Elected in 2016 with only 47% of the vote, Cortez Masto is the incumbent whose position is most vulnerable in 2022. President Biden’s approval rating has dropped to 30% in Nevada, and Laxalt is one of the few quality Republican recruits. Senate this year. The Democrat’s task promises to be very difficult.

The Democrats’ biggest hope of winning a Senate seat is in the state, which endorsed Trump in 2016 and then Biden in 2020, shedding a percentage point both times. “Dr. Oz”, a television personality endorsed by Trump, is particularly unpopular, trailing by ten points in voting intentions against a Democratic candidate who did not campaign for three months after suffering a heart attack. More and more doubts are arising within the Republican Party itself about the strength of Mehmet Oz’s candidacy.

Ron Johnson, re-elected on the edge As in 2016, this year is likely to be hotter because of his many controversial appearances, among other things – his questioning of the existence of climate change, for example, or an armed insurrection on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021. If Democrats manage to oust him, it would be a sign that his chances of retaining a majority in the Senate are better than expected.

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