On May 27, a user of the social network Twitter published his forecast on the outcome of the first presidential round, which took place this Sunday, May 29, in the national arena.
Louis Angel, who describes himself on social networks as passionate about entrepreneurship and business development, indicated that his forecast was based on a trend analysis on a statistical model.
In this analysis that he developed, Tweeter highlighted that the candidate Gustavo Petro would lead on election day with 39% of the votes, which was very close to the reality of the panorama experienced in the first round, in which historical Neta Pact got 40% and more than eight lakh votes.
This tweeter predicted that former mayor of Bucaramanga Rodolfo Hernandez would surprise this election day and beat incumbent Federico Gutierrez by more than 800,000 votes.
in that sense, Angel said that Hernandez would have 28.5% and a total of 5.8 million votes, That did not distance him from reality, as the former mayor of Bucaramanga had a total of 5.9 million votes, which is equivalent to 28.1%.
For his part, within his analysis he published that Fico would be in third place with 24.5%, equivalent to five million votes. However, Gutierrez had a close result, with 23.9% representing a total of five million votes.
It is worth remembering that a recent survey conducted by the National Counseling Center (CNC) Week shown to candidates Federico Gutierrez and Rodolfo Hernandez were practically in a technical tie in intent to vote.
election results
The first round of the presidential election was held this Sunday, May 29, with a turnout of 99.9%, The candidate with the most votes from the historic treaty is Gustavo Petro Urrego, who reached 8,527,433 votes, i.e. 40.3%.
This is not enough for Petro to reach the presidency, as he had to gain 50% of the vote plus one, so he would face Anti-Corruption League candidate Rodolfo Hernández, who finished second with 5,953,204 votes. That is, 28.15%.
That day is set for June 19, 2022, according to the schedule established by the election officials.
The constitution warns, “The President of the Republic shall be elected for a term of four years, by a vote of not more than one-half, which shall be submitted by secret and directly, by the citizens, on the date and with the formalities prescribed by law.” Colombian politics.
“If no candidate obtains a majority, there shall be a new vote three weeks later, In which only the two candidates who get the most votes will participate. The person who gets the most votes will be declared the President,” he added.
Article 190 states that “in the event of death or permanent physical incapacitation of one of the two candidates with a majority of votes, his party or political movement may register a new candidate for the second round. If he does not do so or if the absence is due to any other reason, he shall be replaced by the person who has obtained the third vote, and so on in descending order.”
