India doubled its Russian crude purchases for April delivery after the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed in early March 2026, while the Philippines activated a 20 billion-peso emergency fund as its fuel reserves shrank to 45 days — exposing how deeply Asia’s energy security depends on a single chokepoint.
NEW DELHI / MANILA — India’s crude imports from Russia jumped to roughly 1.5 million barrels per day in early March 2026, up nearly 50 percent from 1.04 million bpd in February, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced the country’s refiners to replace lost Gulf supply almost overnight, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa. The pivot was enabled by a US sanctions waiver, active from March 5, permitting Indian firms to receive Russian cargoes already at sea.
The numbers reveal a structural problem that goes beyond a short-term supply scramble. Before this crisis, roughly 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels per day of India’s crude arrived through the Strait of Hormuz — nearly half of the country’s total daily consumption of 5.8 million bpd, according to India Briefing. No alternative route can replicate that volume at short notice. India is now sourcing from Angola, Brazil, and Russia simultaneously, with officials stating that approximately 70 percent of crude imports are now routed through Hormuz-free corridors, up from roughly 55 percent before the crisis.
The cost of that pivot is being paid at the pump. Indian refiners are securing Russian crude at premiums of $5 to $15 per barrel above the global benchmark — a sharp reversal from the deep discounts that defined Russian oil sales to Asia under Western sanctions. Import costs rose roughly 24 percent in early March compared to February, according to Multibagg.ai market data, a burden that will take time to fully pass through to consumers but is already visible in refined product pricing.
Philippines activates the emergency fund
The urgency is even more acute in Southeast Asia. The Philippines activated a 20 billion-peso (approximately $426 million) emergency energy fund on March 26, one day after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency, citing fuel reserves expected to last only 45 days, according to The Straits Times. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin described the fund activation as “a proactive step” to secure supply.
The country’s first Russian crude shipment in five years arrived on March 23, when the Sierra Leone-flagged tanker Sara Sky docked at Limay port in Bataan, carrying roughly 700,000 barrels of ESPO Blend crude from Russia’s Kozmino port, with Petron — operator of the country’s sole oil refinery — listed as the consignee, according to AFP reporters who observed the vessel at anchor. Petron CEO Ramon Ang declined to confirm the delivery on March 26, but the vessel was visible at port.
What the government has not clearly addressed is the structural gap this exposes. The Philippines imports 98 percent of its oil, the vast majority historically sourced from Gulf producers. Manila is now simultaneously negotiating supply agreements with Japan, China, South Korea, and India, according to Rigzone — a sign that the 45-day reserve window is being treated with real urgency.
The broader Asian exposure runs deeper on gas than on oil. South Asia’s LNG demand is projected to be 2 to 3 million tonnes lower through Q3 2026 compared to pre-crisis forecasts, as buyers struggle to replace disrupted Qatari volumes, according to Wood Mackenzie analysis. Spot LNG prices have surged above $20 per million British thermal units, a level that effectively prices out smaller economies. Pakistan, which sourced nearly all of its 6.6 million tonnes of 2025 LNG from Qatar, has already reduced regasified LNG deliveries to prioritise domestic consumption.
Russia, meanwhile, is recording its highest crude export revenues since March 2022, with renewed Asian demand removing the price discount that Western sanctions were designed to impose. The US sanctions waiver — framed as a crisis management tool — has, in practice, restored a Russian revenue stream that had been substantially squeezed since early 2025.
The outcome hinges on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains commercially impassable. A US-backed ceasefire proposal to Iran has briefly tempered oil prices, but tanker traffic has not resumed. For countries like the Philippines with weeks rather than months of reserves, the clock is no longer a geopolitical abstraction — it is a deadline.
