BEIJING — China’s combined wind and solar power capacity surpassed coal-based thermal generation for the first time in history, reaching 1.84 terawatts by December 2025, according to data released by the National Energy Administration on January 28, marking a structural shift in the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter’s energy mix.
Record Additions Drive Capacity Milestone
Solar power led the surge with 315 gigawatts of new capacity added in 2025—a 35.4 percent year-on-year increase—pushing cumulative solar installations to 1.2 terawatts. Wind power grew 22.9 percent, adding 119 gigawatts to reach 640 gigawatts total. Together, wind and solar now account for 47.3 percent of China’s total installed power generation capacity, exceeding thermal power by 300 million kilowatts.
The combined renewable additions of 434 gigawatts in 2025 represent more than three times the capacity added in 2022, when the country installed 120 million kilowatts. Installation momentum accelerated sharply toward year-end, with solar additions in December alone exceeding 40 gigawatts—comparable to the annual installations of many major global markets.
Industry analysts attributed the December surge to project commissioning deadlines and continued rollout of large-scale renewable bases in western and northern China. When hydropower and nuclear are included, non-fossil sources now account for 60.4 percent of total installed capacity, compared with 39.6 percent for thermal power.
Dual Expansion: Coal Additions Continue Alongside Renewables
Despite the renewable energy milestone, China also added approximately 93 gigawatts of coal and gas-fired power capacity in 2025—75 percent more than in 2024. This dual expansion highlights ongoing tension in China’s energy transition as the country balances climate commitments with grid stability concerns.
“2025 is a critical year for China to make overall emissions from its power sector stop increasing,” said Gao Yuhe, climate and energy project manager at Greenpeace East Asia. “Since 2024, we’ve seen a turning point where the wind and solar growth is outpacing coal. If this trend continues, renewables could meet all of China’s new electricity demand.”
Greenpeace East Asia research shows China approved 41.77 gigawatts of new coal power capacity in the first three quarters of 2025, making it the second-lowest year for approvals in the 2021-2025 period. However, construction started on 94.5 gigawatts of new coal capacity in 2024—the highest level since 2015—signaling substantial new plants will come online in the next 2-3 years.
Power Consumption Crosses Historic Threshold
China’s annual electricity consumption surpassed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time in 2025, marking a 5 percent increase from the previous year. The milestone cements the country’s position as the world’s largest single-country power consumer, with demand now exceeding the combined total of the European Union, Russia, India, and Japan—and more than twice that of the United States.
The services sector and residential demand drove 50 percent of overall growth, with electricity use in electric vehicle charging and battery swapping surging 48.8 percent and IT-related industries growing 17 percent. The National Energy Administration noted that one in every three kilowatt-hours consumed in China now comes from green sources.
China also put four new ultra-high voltage transmission lines into operation in 2025, raising cross-provincial transmission capacity to 370 gigawatts and enhancing delivery of clean energy from resource-rich western regions to high-demand eastern and southern provinces.
Integration Challenges and 2026 Outlook
Most forecasters expect solar installations to decline in 2026 following the record comparison base. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association projects a mainstream range of 215 to 220 gigawatts for the year, representing a decline of around 20 to 25 percent from 2025 levels.
Grid integration challenges and electricity market reforms are expected to play a growing role in determining how quickly new capacity can be absorbed. Storage development still lags behind the pace of renewable installations, and curtailment—where wind or solar power is wasted because the grid cannot absorb it—remains a persistent issue in some regions.
BloombergNEF’s latest baseline points to around 273 gigawatts of new solar additions in 2026, while several Chinese brokerages and industry publications place their central estimates between 200 and 225 gigawatts. Across scenarios, there is broad agreement that utility-scale projects in large desert and renewable base developments will dominate demand, while distributed generation remains the largest source of uncertainty as power price and tariff mechanisms continue to evolve.
With cumulative solar capacity now above 1 terawatt, China’s market is increasingly shaped by system integration challenges rather than pure build-out. The country has already exceeded its 2030 NDC targets for installing 1,200 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity and is on track to raise the share of non-fossil fuels in energy consumption to 25 percent by 2030.
