BTN News: Boeing has raised its 20-year forecast for new jetliner deliveries by 3%, now predicting 43,975 deliveries, driven by robust passenger demand, intensifying airline competition, and the need to replace older, less efficient aircraft. The aviation industry, severely impacted by the pandemic, has rebounded sharply, leading to labor and parts shortages and various supply chain challenges. This resurgence in demand is putting pressure on manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus to keep pace, while airlines face long waits for new planes.
The updated forecast was announced by Boeing on the eve of the Farnborough Air Show near London, highlighting the increasing need for planes through 2043. Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing, noted that the retirement rates of older airplanes have halved over the past four years due to the lack of new aircraft entering the market. However, Hulst believes this issue will be addressed in the medium to long term as supply constraints ease.
Boeing’s forecast indicates that single-aisle airplanes will dominate deliveries, accounting for 33,380 units or 76% of the total demand. The remaining deliveries until 2043 will include 8,065 widebody planes, 1,525 regional jets, and 1,005 freighters. Boeing anticipates that approximately half of these new jets will replace older models, while the other half will expand airline fleets.
The company projects that the global aircraft fleet will nearly double over the next 20 years, increasing from about 26,750 jets in 2023 to 50,170 by 2043. Additionally, Boeing has revised its industry-wide passenger traffic growth rate forecast to 4.7%.
Despite the optimistic outlook, Boeing has faced significant challenges, particularly after an in-flight emergency involving an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9 in January. This incident prompted the Federal Aviation Administration to take the unprecedented step of halting Boeing’s plans to expand 737 MAX production until the company could demonstrate substantial quality and safety improvements.
